Students will be able to meet and talk with adults about 70 future career possibilities.

Immediately following the Career Fair, an Employment Fair will begin for jobseekers and companies with openings. This event also will be in the armory.

For more information about either program, contact Joan Sherif of the Northwest Regional Library at (336) 835-4894 or jsherif@nwrl.org.

Both numbers are significantly higher than previous estimates. Throughout 2007, the commission reported a local labor force of about 34,900 people with 33,000 people working.

The commission each year “re-norms” its estimates for workforce, employment and joblessness. “The recalculation is required to meet federal guidelines,” the Winston-Salem Journal reports. “The benchmark is a monthly population survey by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to determine the national unemployment rate.

“One result of the annual benchmarking typically is a reduction in the nonseasonally adjusted work force within the state’s four metropolitan statistical areas. For example, in the Winston-Salem MSA, there were 2,700 fewer jobs listed for January compared with December…. The Greensboro-High Point MSA was listed with 5,000 fewer jobs, Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord MSA with 15,200 fewer jobs and Raleigh-Cary with 7,900 fewer jobs.”

If the commission’s numbers hold up, the size of Surry County’s labor force today is as large as it was in 2003 and employment actually is higher. During that four-year period, the county has lost thousands of manufacturing jobs. However, Surry County has had growth in government employment, service-sector sole proprietorships and limited partnerships, retailing, health-care occupations and the hospitality industry.

The county’s unemployment rate remains high and, in fact, jumped from 2,114 at the end of 2007 to 2,448 in January as workers laid off late last year exhausted any severance payments and began claiming unemployment compensation. The 6.8 percent unemployment rate is the highest since early 2004. Surry County now has the highest unemployment rate in the 12-county Piedmont Triad region, according to the Winston-Salem Journal’s article.

More than 2,100 people — 6.1 percent of the county’s labor force — were unemployed and seeking work in December. The unemployment rate was 0.2 percent higher than in November. Twelve months previously, in December 2006, 1,732 were unemployed and the jobless rate was 4.9 percent.

The number of Surry County people with jobs also fell sharply from 2006 to 2007. About 33,550 people had work in December 2006 compared to 32,823 in December 2007. Though 730 fewer people have work, that number is well below the job losses when at least four textile and apparel companies ceased manufacturing operations in Mount Airy last year.

Increases in service-related jobs (especially health care), retailing and government employment in Surry County have absorbed some of the displaced workers, as we’ve previously reported in SurryBusiness.com.

However, the loss of employment opportunities may be shrinking the local labor pool, which previously held up fairly well despite severe job losses (primarily in textiles and apparel) dating to 2001-02.

In 2007, according to a preliminary calculation based on NCESC’s monthly labor reports, the size of Surry County’s available labor force slipped below 35,000. That reverses the upwards movement since 2005. If the calculations hold up, the 2007 local labor force of less than 34,900 would be the smallest in Surry County in 15 years.

One year’s change in the labor force’s size does not establish a trend. Various factors can account for changes from one year to the next. Although some workers move away in search of other opportunities, people also drop out of the labor force but remain in the county while they return to school for retraining or additional education, when they cease seeking work until new job opportunities emerge and when they shift into non-payroll employment as housekeeping, unlicensed child care and general labor.

Retirement also will have a large impact on labor force numbers now and in the next 20 years. The first Baby Boomers (people born between 1946 and 1964) turn 62 this year and become eligible for Social Security.

“I expect we are going to feel it here,” Don Jud, professor emeritus of business administration at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro, told the newspaper. “The pattern is that the Triad economy tracks the nation pretty closely. For example, building permits nationally are down 24 percent. Here, we are down 25 percent.”

Two major Triad em­ployers with ties to Surry County already announced job cut­backs this month. Ashe­boro-based Klaussner Home Furnishings will close furni­ture Plant 5 in two months, laying off 130 workers, and Hanesbrands Inc. intends to close textile plants in Da­vie and Randolph counties, eliminating 120 jobs.  Klaussner in September selected Salem Logistics, which has a 350,000-square-foot distribution hub in Pilot Mountain, as its exclusive contractor for transportation and logistics. Hanesbrands manufactures women’s hosiery at its Mount Airy plant, 645 W. Pine.

The slump in the national economy will catch up to the Triad “if there’s a general downturn in consumer spend­ing,” said Mike McCully, eco­nomics instructor at High Point University. One risk fac­tor for the Triad is that many key employers, such as Dell Inc. and furnishings compa­nies, depend on big-ticket pur­chases by consumers, he told the High Point Enterprise. “If the economy is not do­ing well, that’s often the stuff that people will cut back on,” McCully said.

As SurryBusiness.com reported previously, a shortage of welders and other metal fabricators is preventing or delaying several companies’ expansion in Surry County. The college offers welding classes, but has had trouble attracting prospective students.

The problem of finding welders came up again earlier this month at the economic summit in Mount Airy — ironically, a meeting held just three blocks away from metals-fabricator Ottenweller Company, one of the manufacturers mentioned in Corwin’s article.

The others are Granite Tactical Vehicles in Pilot Mountain, one of several U.S. firms developing specialized, hardened vehicles for use by military troops and security contractors; CK Technologies of Mount Airy, which manufactures truck parts for Volvo and Freightliner; and Tampco of Elkin, which manufactures stainless steel fittings for marine uses. All, like Ottenweller, have unfilled job openings.

All need workers trained in precision welding.

“It’s very delicate work,” said Chad Bledsoe, dean of SCC’s business, computer and engineering technologies. “When you think of welding you often think of slapping things together. Those days are gone.”

The demanding curriculum led some students to drop out of a fall welding course offered through the college’s Corporate and Continuing Education Division. However, with many industrial welding jobs now paying $60,000 a year or more, Vice President George Sappenfield says he hopes the new classes offered this semester will attract plenty of interest.

“We hope, now that the information is out there, people will realize that with welding there are jobs where you can make a pretty good living,” Sappenfield told Corwin. “These are solid industries looking for welders. They are not going to fold anytime soon.”

Surry Community College offers one-semester courses and one-year diploma programs that prepare students for welding certification tests.

The corporate and continuing education division this month will begin two classes designed specifically for Granite Tactical’s needs. Each requires 75 hours of classroom time.

The North Carolina Employment Security Commission said 33,077 people in the resident workforce had jobs — only 64 fewer than in June when seasonal employment swelled the labor market.

There were 2,077 people seeking work and receiving unemployment benefits — 5.9 percent of the workforce — and though that was a slight improvement from October, when 2,108 were jobless, the number of idled workers was the third-highest total since February 2006.

Twelve months ago, in November 2006, 33,430 residents of Surry County had jobs and 1,748 (5.0 percent) were unemployed. Since that time there have been several major layoffs at textile and apparel plants in Mount Airy, but growth across the county in retail, service and government employment.

Elsewhere in the Piedmont Triad region of northwest North Carolina, local unemployment rates moved plus or minus 0.1 percent from October to November but were lower than in November 2006 or, in the Winston-Salem metropolitan area, unchanged.

Caswell and Montgomery counties had the region’s highest November unemployment rates at 6.3 percent; Forsyth and Yadkin had the lowest: 4.3 and 4.2 percent respectively.

Most of professions with the best combination of opportunities and job satisfactions require at least a two-year or four-year college degree, but the list also includes four careers that don’t demand a college education — biomedical equipment technician, firefighter, hairstylist/cosmetologist, and locksmith/security system technician.

Other non-degree careers with good prospects for the future include machinists and electrician/electronics techs (above-average pay and easier on the body than many other blue-collar careers). Several Surry County companies, among them Global Tactical Vehicles, Crescent Manufacturing and AES (Allied Electronics Services), tell us they can’t find enough people to fill openings in those two careers.

Remember that Surry Community College in Dobson offers degree, diploma and certificate programs for more than 40 occupations, including cosmetology, machining technology, electricity and electronics.

Previewing a Manpower Inc. Employment Outlook quarterly report, Craver writes, “Just 7 percent of employers in (Davie, Forsyth, Stokes and Yadkin counties) say they plan to add staff in the first quarter…. The last time that the local hiring projection was so low was the fourth quarter of 1996…. Twenty-three percent of local employers expect to reduce their work force — the same as the fourth quarter of 2007.”

“The economy and the weak dollar have shaken some employers to the point of being gun-shy when it comes to hiring, especially considering most employers’ most controllable expense is employees.” Matt Stadler, the manager of Manpower’s office in Winston-Salem, told Craver. “We’re also seeing more people willing to stay in the job they’re in, even as employers are expecting more from them as they operate with less staff.”

The survey found that the best job prospects are in the service sector. Employers in construction, durable and nondurable-goods manufacturing are the most likely to eliminate jobs.

“The area continues to brace for major job cuts from several area employers pursuing cost savings through outsourcing and offshoring information,” Craver wrote. “A short list includes Aon Corp., BB&T Corp., Dell Inc., GMAC Insurance, Reynolds American Inc. and Wachovia Corp.”

The survey area does not include Surry County, but thousands of people from here work there daily.

Manpower Inc.’s nationwide employment outlook report is here.

Although 250 more people found jobs, there was a net increase of about 100 jobseekers — mainly people thrown into the marketplace after textile and apparel industries closed manufacturing operations in Mount Airy — and Surry County’s unemployment rate rose to 6.0 percent in October, its highest level since February 2006.

When the Employment Security Commission announced its workforce data in September, Surry County was the only North Carolina county whose unemployment rate went up in August. From August to September, however, joblessness rose in 12 counties. In this newest report, 55 N.C. counties have higher unemployment. In the 12-county Piedmont Triad region alone there were eight counties (including Surry) with higher unemployment, three unchanged and one (Yadkin County) with slightly less joblessness.

According to this week’s report, Surry County’s resident workforce in October is slightly (70 people) larger than in the same month a year ago. Slightly less than 33,100 are employed, compared with almost 33,500 in October 2006. More than 2,100 people in Surry County were seeking work last month compared to 1,644 12 months earlier when the jobless rate was 4.7 percent.

UPDATE: The Mount Airy News today (Nov. 29) has an article about the new unemployment numbers, including details of the job losses this year.

“Numbers since January and over the past year continue to remain positive,” said Harry Payne Jr., chairman of the N.C. Employment Security Commission.

In the total labor force of 822,313, about 38,500 people filed unemployment claims in September.

Joblessness rates fell in eight Piedmont Triad counties. Caswell and Montgomery counties continued to indicate unemployment rates higher than 6 percent. Stokes County had the lowest unemployment rate: 4.0 percent.
The statewide unemployment rate in September was 4.9 percent, up 0.1 percent from August.County-by-county September and August unemployment rates for the Piedmont Triad region are:

• Alamance: 4.8 percent, down from 5.1 percent
• Caswell: 6.1 percent, down from 6.8 percent
• Davidson: 5.3 percent, down from 5.5 percent
• Davie: 4.7 percent, down from 4.9 percent
• Forsyth: 4.3 percent, down from 4.5 percent
• Guilford: 4.5 percent, down from 4.8 percent
• Montgomery: 6.3 percent, up from 6.2 percent
• Randolph: 4.3 percent, down from 4.6 percent
• Rockingham: 5.4 percent, down from 5.7 percent
• Stokes: 4 percent, up from 3.9 percent
• Surry: 5.8 percent, up from 5.6 percent
• Yadkin: 4.2 percent, up from 4.1 percent